Ethereum’s available supply on centralized crypto exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since November 2015, according to new data from Santiment. As of March 21, only 8.97 million ETH remain on exchanges, highlighting a decade-long low in availability. The decline is primarily driven by staking and decentralized finance trends, as more users remove their assets from exchanges in favor of holding or locking them in DeFi protocols. Despite this historically low supply, Ethereum’s price has not responded positively. Since its December high of $4,105, ETH has dropped nearly 47%, hitting $1,990 on March 21. This sharp drop places Ethereum among the worst-performing major crypto assets in early 2025.

Shrinking Exchange Supply

Why ETH Availability Is Dropping Fast

According to Santiment’s analysis, Ethereum’s exchange supply has plunged 16.4% in the past seven weeks. This trend indicates long-term accumulation, as investors prefer staking ETH or participating in DeFi protocols instead of trading on exchanges.

However, the lack of sell pressure has not been enough to drive up prices. Instead, Ethereum’s mainnet activity and revenue have seen notable declines, suggesting deeper systemic challenges despite reduced supply.

On-Chain Activity Signals Trouble

Decreasing Volumes and Revenue Post-Dencun Upgrade

The Dencun upgrade significantly reduced Ethereum gas fees by 95%, yet this has not led to greater usage or increased revenue. Monthly DEX volume on Ethereum dropped from $92 billion in December to $82 billion in February. Fee revenue plummeted from $218 million to just $46 million in the same period.

Layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum and Base are drawing away users, with $5.67 billion in DEX volume in just one week, out of Ethereum’s $9.8 billion total. This shift weakens Ethereum’s position as the primary settlement layer in the crypto ecosystem.

Technical and Institutional Headwinds

Weak Momentum and ETF Hesitation Add Pressure

Ethereum’s technical indicators are currently bearish. The RSI is at 41.22, suggesting recovery from oversold conditions, but lacking strong momentum. Price is also struggling to break through the 50-day moving average at $2,042, while volatility remains low.

Institutional interest remains tepid. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $370 million in outflows last month. Although the NYSE and CBOE have submitted requests to allow staking in ETH ETFs, the SEC has not yet approved these changes, limiting broader adoption potential.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Short-Term Resistance and Support Markers

• Resistance at $2,042
• Upside targets: $2,163 and $2,370
• Support at $1,986
• Key fallback zone: $1,714

A break above $2,042 could spark short-term bullish momentum, but failure to hold $1,986 might see ETH testing support closer to $1,700.

Ethereum Ecosystem Snapshot

Current Stats and Trends

• Total Value Locked (TVL): $46B, down from $76B in December
• ETH on exchanges: 8.97M (10-year low)
• Monthly fee revenue: $46M in February
• Layer-2 dominance increasing