Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle: three years of upward momentum followed by a sharp pullback. This pattern was evident in 2014, 2018, and 2022, with major crashes linked to Mt. Gox, ICO crackdowns, and the Terra ecosystem collapse.
Hougan suggests Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including regulatory clarity for crypto custody by banks and potential national digital asset reserves, could drive trillions into the market. Institutional adoption through ETFs and corporate Bitcoin holdings may also fuel sustained growth.
Despite optimism, Hougan warns that the market is not immune to excessive leverage and speculation. While Trump’s executive order could reshape the landscape, another sharp correction in 2026 remains possible if unchecked exuberance leads to market imbalances.
If regulatory changes open doors for Wall Street and government-backed digital asset strategies, Bitcoin’s trajectory could defy past cycles. However, investors should remain cautious, as new policies take time to materialize and could introduce unforeseen risks.
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