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Trump’s Executive Order Could Disrupt Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle, Says Bitwise CIO

Business
Updated: 1/30/2025
Trump’s Executive Order Could Disrupt Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle, Says Bitwise CIO
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Trump
U.S. President Donald Trump’s new executive order on crypto regulation may disrupt Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. The regulatory shift in Washington, combined with institutional adoption, could extend the current bull market beyond 2026.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle & Market Trends

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle: three years of upward momentum followed by a sharp pullback. This pattern was evident in 2014, 2018, and 2022, with major crashes linked to Mt. Gox, ICO crackdowns, and the Terra ecosystem collapse.

What Could Change the Cycle?

Hougan suggests Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including regulatory clarity for crypto custody by banks and potential national digital asset reserves, could drive trillions into the market. Institutional adoption through ETFs and corporate Bitcoin holdings may also fuel sustained growth.

Will Crypto Avoid a Bear Market?

Despite optimism, Hougan warns that the market is not immune to excessive leverage and speculation. While Trump’s executive order could reshape the landscape, another sharp correction in 2026 remains possible if unchecked exuberance leads to market imbalances.

The Future of Bitcoin Under Trump’s Administration

If regulatory changes open doors for Wall Street and government-backed digital asset strategies, Bitcoin’s trajectory could defy past cycles. However, investors should remain cautious, as new policies take time to materialize and could introduce unforeseen risks.

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