Bitcoin has entered a turbulent trading range between $78,000 and $82,000 as bullish momentum fades and macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on the market. With major events shaping the crypto landscape, volatility has intensified, leading to sharp price swings.

Market Reacts to U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

A “sell-the-news” event erases gains from Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Bitcoin briefly surged past $90,000 last week before facing a sharp pullback triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The market reacted with a “sell-the-news” event, wiping out recent gains as traders adjusted to shifting economic and regulatory conditions.

Options Expiry Triggers Major Price Swings

Over $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expired, fueling market turbulence.

The expiration of massive Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts last Friday contributed to increased market instability. Realized volatility spiked above 80%, while implied volatility surged 35.7% as traders hedged against further uncertainty ahead of the White House Crypto Summit.

On-Chain Data Shows Distress Selling

Key metrics indicate short-term holders suffered significant losses.

The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a crucial metric for assessing market sentiment, fell below 1.0 for the first time since October 2024, signaling that holders were selling at a loss. Short-term investors were hit hardest, with their SOPR dropping to 0.95—the second-largest negative reading in this cycle.

Broader Economic Uncertainty Adds Pressure

Jobs data, inflation, and trade policies weigh on investor confidence.

Macroeconomic factors are also impacting Bitcoin’s outlook. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% due to government job cuts. Meanwhile, inflation remains a concern, with trade disruptions and rising production costs affecting market sentiment.

Crypto Regulations: A Shift in U.S. Policy

The U.S. Bitcoin reserve signals a major shift, with new legislation on the horizon.

The U.S. now holds 187,000 BTC worth $13 billion, marking a strategic pivot in federal policy from selling seized Bitcoin to retaining it as a national asset. Additionally, the administration is pushing for stablecoin legislation by August and aiming to roll back restrictive policies like Operation Choke Point 2.0.